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The analysis comes as foreign exchange professionals frantically re-adjusting their forecasts for the New Zealand dollar in the wake of June’s interest rate cut which is seen as something of a game-changer for the currency.
The cut took markets by surprise judging by the aggressive sell-off witnessed with the headline pair of NZD/USD declining from 0.72 to 0.70, a low abandoned in 2010.
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One of the first institutional analysis which we have seen in the wake of the move comes from the team at Intessa Sanpaolo in Rome who told clients the NZD is still overvalued when all evidence is taken into account.
Their base case is for further declines; “we confirm our expectations for a further depreciation of the New Zealand dollar to below the NZD/USD 0.70 mark, and leave our forecasts on a 3m-6m horizon unchanged at NZD/USD 0.68-0.65.” This is the period in which the two main downside factors are concentrated: the possibility of the RBNZ cutting interest rates further and – by contrast – the start of the Fed’s reversal on rates.
At the time of writing the pair is quoted at 2.2348.
It was not just the cut itself that has seen downgraded forecasts - it is the outlook communicated by the RBNZ that made analysts and traders take fright.
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